鐵忠治水

美國佛羅里達理工學院Professor W. R. Graves主要教授Aviation Planning, Airport Design, INM (Integrated Noise Model)等,和其他老師不同的是他上課不用課本,而是自己準備講義,而且最重要的部分他只會在課堂上講解.這些課都非常實務,比如說機場治水工程(Storm Water Run Off)這個章節使我瞭解如何計算颱風豪大雨降雨量,不同地形洪水流速,及所需排水設計等.

Professor W. R. Graves taught aviation planning, airport design, INM, etc. at the Florida Institute of Technology (F.I.T.). Unlike most of teachers, he seldom used textbooks but his own teaching materials and always lectured the important issues in the classroom. For instance, I learned "Storm Water Run Off" to understand storm rainfall rates, run off coefficient and time of flow, and pipe needed for drainage design.

今天因颱風帶來前所未見的降雨量,全台淹水的情況相當嚴重,無庸至疑這是天災;但是如果我們早先規劃時已經考慮洪水的問題並依詳實計畫執行,也許今天就不會這樣悽慘了.這裡我提供部分講義及基本的計算概念,希望可以喚起大家的注意,及尊重專業. Today we have an unexpected storm rainfall and have a serious flooding around Taiwan islandwide. Surely, this is a natural disaster, but if we have planed in advance with the control of local flooding, then the damage could be avoided. Here I provide materials and handouts relevant to Water Run Off. I am hoping to draw your attention to aviation specialists.

台灣水利署說花完預算颱風照淹,但是我們可以清楚看到美國規定不論是System Planning, Master Planning, Design and Construction, 或Operational都必須防範Local Flooding and Sedimentation;問題在於台灣人才夠不夠多及有沒有決心去做好,一個區域一個區域規劃整治,Ponding及drainage system以近五年內所經歷最大的降雨量為主(a maximum rainfall expected once in 5 years is generally recommended for estimation),凡是努力過必留痕跡,將可行目標設定好,一個一個按部就班來完成. 除了水利署的看法,我們也應該廣邀歐美學者及專家的看法或是一同參與規劃與整治. "知難行易"至少 國父孫中山先生也是這麼鼓勵大家應該有的做事態度.

專業至上

In the United States, the core courses of the Department of Aviation consist of aviation planning, airport design, airport management, aircraft maintenance management, flight management, aviation laws, etc. However, I found the courses of aviation in Taiwan are far different from the courses in American aviation departments. Perhaps it is because the majors of Taiwanese teaching staff in the Aviation Department are computer science. What I concern is if Taiwanese aviation teachers are isolated themselves from the world, they never be able to see the developmental trends of international aviation.
在美國,航空管理系主要修業課程通常包含機場規劃,機場設計,機場管理,飛行管理,飛機修護管理,航空法等.我發現台灣這裡卻以資訊管理取代;名義上是航空管理系但是實質上所開的課與英美等大學航空管理學系所開設的課相差十萬八千里. 我相當擔心如果台灣從來不曾與英美航空管理的學者交流,永遠坐井觀天,不知道外面的山有多高,外面的海有多深,那不僅是個人的可悲也是台灣悲哀.沒有專業的師資很難相信台灣航空管理能夠進步多少?現在頂著"航空管理教授"的光環而卻是主修電腦的人如何帶領臺灣航空的未來?

2008台灣國內航空公司的危機與轉機

目前台灣學者對危機管理的定義多以類似緊急應變或失事預防為主.但是今日航空公司的危機處理不再是以失事預防而是財務危機處理為首要.油價飆升,通貨膨脹,及次級房貸風暴使得全球經濟緊縮,不少航空公司面臨倒閉的危機.(美國航管課程所提到"危機處理"因此多以財務為例.)譬如說遠東航空公司之所以倒閉有部分原因是執行長決策錯誤,另一部分應是公司組織鬆散所致.也可惜遠東航空公司被交給一位非航管專業的人經營,終於導致失敗.此時政府應該諮詢航管專家的意見再決定是否或如何營救遠東航空.美國是資本主義者所以航空公司經營全由市場機制決定(合併或裁員司空見慣),但台灣文化畢竟與美國不同,政府如果伸出一些援助就可能救幾百個或幾千個家庭(這些人並不是沒知識或沒有工作能力,而是有能力卻意外失去工作機會),那為什麼不救呢?
Risk management is defined operationally in research. Most of Taiwanese scholars tend to define risk management as emergency responses or accident prevention. That is fine. However, aircraft accident is not a pressing issue in risk management for most airlines corp today. Financial issues are what they concern about and become an important one in risk management. The increasing pressure on oil price, economic inflation, and mortgage has made the airline corp. facing the bankruptcy. In addition to issues mentioned, the Far East Airlines had a serious organization problem for effect management. The company hired a wrong CEO who led to the bankruptcy and should be responsible for the failure of management. The Airline Deregulation Act is the way that U. S. government treats their companies. However, I disagree that Taiwanese government gives up the Far East Airlines which basically will make profit soon if only they change their operations. It will save hundreds or thousands of families. The authorities should be involved and consulted with aviation specialists. (written June 22, 2008)

2008 Taiwanese Airlines Risk Management is the topic in April. The Far East Airlines as being bankruptcy touches my heart to write this articles for it and other domestic airlines. Nevertheless, I am quite busy on my study. Please wait ...

Last month, I discussed Taiwanese airport management and have drawn the attention of authorities to this issue. Hopefully, the master plans of Taoyuan International Airport and aviation industry will be conducted successfully.

這是我這個月要發表的文章,是針對遠東航空公司的慘澹經營有感而發,也許也適用其他台灣國內航空公司.但最近比較忙還沒時間寫,請期待.

上個月對台灣機場做了一些建言以後,很高興越來越多人注意這個問題,希望桃園航空城可以成功.

Taiwan Economy Development Supported by Airports 機場幫台灣拼經濟

The cross-strait charter flights between Taiwan and China will be launched soon, but are airports in Taiwan ready?
From the perspectives of aviation specialist, I observe and assume that Taiwanese airports still remain the operations of traditional airport management which focuses on enplanement and deplanement services. These airports are largely dependent upon the budgets of the government needed billions dollars to maintain airport operations. The costs in the airport at least are including personnel salary, education and training, equipment and facility maintenance, ramps and terminals construction, and taxiways and runways pavements. However, the modern airport management is based on the principle of non-profit organization. To survive, the airports must make fortunes as much as possible themselves. A typical example is L.A.X., which contributes $61 billion to the economy each year or $167 million each day.
Approximately 408,000 jobs are directly or indirectly due to the airport, including more than 59,000 jobs at 254 firms at the airport itself. The annual budget for LAX is more than $475.2 million. Please refer to the official website http://www.laxairport.com/ And other example near Taiwan is Hongkong international airport with approximate 51billion HK$ IN 2006/2007. Please see http://www.hongkongairport.com/eng/aboutus/report/06_07/e08_financial_and_oh.pdf
Since Taiwanese airport will take advantages of cross-strait flights, I want to ask our authorities again "Are Taiwanese airports ready?"

兩岸直航即將開啟,但台灣各個機場真的準備好了嗎?
就專業而言,台灣機場的功能還僅是維持在傳統的思維:只負責輸送旅客及貨物的服務. 這樣的管理模式必須要花費龐大的政府預算,例如人事費,教育訓練費,機器設備費,廠棚及航站增建或改建,跑道及滑行道整修諸如等等,每年都要花掉國庫好幾億,才能使一個國際機場正常運作.但是,現在國外的機場管理模式雖然不是以營利為主,卻強調自給自足;也就是說機場要學會賺錢以減少政府的支出.從來自美國L.A.機場官方網站http://www.laxairport.com/資料顯示這個國際機場一年幫政府賺六百億美元,平均一天賺一億六千七百萬美元.直接或間接提供四十萬零八千個工作機會給國人. 而該機場一年的支出預算僅約四億七千五百萬美元,無形中成為幫國家拼經濟的大功臣.臨近的香港國際機場一年收入約七十七億港幣, 支援年度機械設施維修及更新後,淨獲利約二十億港幣(資料來源香港國際機場官方網站(http://www.hongkongairport.com/eng/aboutus/report/06_07/e08_financial_and_oh.pdf)
台灣即將擁有香港的優勢,再請問一次我們真的準備好了嗎?
我的結論是只負責輸送旅客及貨物的服務是絕對不夠的.

Heathrow Airport Terminal Building Development

We need professional airport managers to make Taiwan airports that we are proud of.

我們需要專業機場管理者, 使台灣國際機場也能向其他先進國家一樣成為國民驕傲的地方.

多重迴歸分析 Multiple Regression Correlation Analysis

Multiple regression correlation analysis is intended for finding the extent to which independent variables have influenced on the dependent variables. The basic MRC can tell you direct effect, indirect effect, spurious effect, total effect, partial correlation coefficients and semipartial correlation coefficients, etc. You might feel it so complicated. To test hypotheses, MRC is a core course in science departments. Advanced MRC involves more independent (IVs) and dependent variables (DVs). For instance, a study is conducted by examining the product effect and user attitude. It is incorrect to analyze the DVs individually, because it will inflate the significance and increase standard error. It is called multicollinearity. For this reason, the MANCOVA (Multivariate Analysis of Covariance) and MANOVA (Multivariate Analysis of Variance) are created to test simultaneously differences among groups of multiple dependent variables. However, according to Cohen, et. al. (2003), with large number of IVs there is the risk of finding something that is not there and not finding something that is there. As a result, less is more means more statistical test validity, more power, and more meaningful results. From the perspective of science, there exist serious flaws that Taiwanese put different elections in a poll. Unfortunately, few of them realize this problem. What are your opinions on this issue?
多重迴歸分析主要是用於分析各種因素對結果的影響有多少. 簡易的分析可以計算出因素與結果之間的直接關係,間接關係,個別關係,與所有因素之間的相關性等.也許你已經感覺其複雜性,但為追求真正的前因後果,多重迴歸分析在科學研究是一門相當重要的科目.複雜的分析通常包含更多的因素與不同的結果.例如,某一研究員想知道新方法的效果及被喜歡的程度.常見的分析錯誤是一項一項檢驗;先分析效果如何再分析受測者所持的態度.由於結果之間有其關聯性(也就是所謂的共同性),分別計算的方式會誇大其結論.所以演生出MANCOVA及MANOVA(若有興趣請查Google).但科學界還是建議Less is more (Cohen, et. al. 2003).意思是少一些外來因素所得的結果才會有更多的效度.科學研究不就是要人相信結果是有效可信的嗎?社會科學當然也是一樣,所以你可以發現先進國家絕對不會將不同選舉放在一起,更不用說是用手段綁大選.但似乎台灣理解這種道理的人不夠多,才會吵鬧不休無法帶領群眾走向正途.你們覺得呢?

機場設計與高鐵站設計 Taiwan Airport Design and Taiwan Highspeed Railway Design

Taiwan airports and Taiwan Highspeed Railways commit the same mistakes. Both their terminal design focuses only on the outlays of main buildings. Though the terminals look awesome, terminal functions and concepts are hardly considered. For instance, according to Graves (2003), terminal developments should be planned on the basis of forecasts. From forecasts, the relationships between demand and the capacity of the various components of a terminal complex can be established and requirements for gate positions and terminal area space can be determined. After approximations of gate (platform) and terminal space requirements have been developed, various terminal types or concepts should be analyzed to determine which type best fits the needs of a particular airport and railway station. In selecting a terminal types, the functions of the various components of the terminal should be examined first to determine how the components will fit into the overall terminal plan. Then, airport / railway station configuration should be selected based on concept evaluation and drawings. The design should be entailed on the basis of references of airport design and transportation design. Meanwhile, design planning should consider all transportation connections for the convenience of passenger arrivals and departures. Most importantly, the environment evaluation should be done under the regulations. Do you think Taiwan airport design and Taiwan highspeed railway have been considered its functions and concepts?

台灣的機場及高鐵設計上都有相同的錯誤. 航站建築很美觀,但是卻未深入考量其功能與理念.例如, Graves 教授認為航站的設計乃基於運輸之預測.根據需求量及容量求得何種航站最合適,以提供足夠登機門(月台)及航站所需空間.當然各種型式航站的功能與部門,也要逐一評估以符合整體航站計劃.之後便可以基於理念,評估,與草圖而選擇整體航站結構和形態.設計務求詳實並參考航站或運輸設計之文獻.同時航站規劃應考量所有聯外道路交通以利乘客搭機與接送.最重要的是環境保護評估必需按規定審查.你覺得台灣機場及台灣高鐵的設計已經考量其功能與理念了嗎?