回顧2008年與未來展望 -- Hunker down

2008年對航空業者是相當慘痛的一年.英國《經濟學人》（the Economist）雜誌總編輯富蘭克林(Daniel Franklin)說，「在年初時，誰能料到八十五年歷史的投資銀行貝爾斯登（Bear Stearns）會倒？誰會預測一百五十八年歷史的雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）走入歷史？誰能算到從房地美（Freddie Mac）、房利美（Fannie Mae）、美林（Merrill Lynch）、AIG等招牌，會和危機一詞連在一起？」
七月之前國際油價屢創新高,飆高到逼近每桶一百五十美元,票價不得不調高以反應成本,但高油價時代使得整體經濟低迷,人們消費已趨保守更不用說是付更高的票價出國旅行.各航空公司開始減少班機以避免赤字持續擴大.九月以後國際金融風暴洗捲全球,景氣更是詭譎,裁員關廠不斷,股票市場更是一遍哀鴻遍野,錢就這樣蒸發不見了.航空公司的經營面臨前所未有的嚴峻挑戰,如何生存或創造穫利呢?說難也不難說簡單也不簡單--開源節流.
兩岸大三通對航空公司是開源的大好消息,各種優惠航線應立刻推出以增加載客運輸量.但更重要的是節流的改革(請參考航空公司管理書籍可得知支出項目).航空公司其實最大的支出就是人事成本.問題是沒有主管願意犧牲自己完成改革;道理很簡單因為航空公司絕大多數的重要主管多以飛行員晉用,理所當然這些主管勢必盡全力保護以飛行員為主的體系以維持自身利益,如果有誰企圖破壞則立刻會被撤換.航空公司在改革與重整上面臨最大的問題包含有:
Morphostasis - - the process of retaining a structure, organization or form. It is actively pursued as in the goal of perfect adaption. Morphostatic forces refer to admit only those changes that do not threaten existing structures.
Morphogenesis - - differentiation and growth of the structure of an organization; this idea comes from the Developmental Biology to explain that morphogenesis involves an attempt to understand the shapes of tissues, organs, and entire organisms. That is, the process in complex system-environment exchanges that tends to elaborate a systems' given form or structure. A morphogenic system is capable of maintaining its continuity and integrity by changing essential aspects of its structure or orgainization.
Homeostasis - - the balance of power; a process of interaction or mechanism which balances various influences and effects such that a stable state or stable behavior is maintained.
See Prof. Archer (1995), Prof. Priestley (2007), and Web dictionary (2008).

建立制度

上個月連續兩件飛安事件後,表面上是全面停飛檢討訓練及飛機檢查,藉此加強飛安工作.但事實上大家卻只是做做樣子敷衍了事.幾千年來一向如此,當官的照樣升官發財,沒有人為事件負起責任;當然最後都是不了了之,幕僚抄一抄以前的失事報告隨即結案,時間久了大家也就忘記血的教訓.果真過幾年又失事,大家才又趕快應付,如此週而復始悲劇不斷重演.
例如停飛時加強飛行員職能學識本來是件好事,但測驗時卻任由作弊官官相護,這樣子的考試如何能夠加強飛安呢?
例如沒有預先規範失事調查人員的水準,如何真正的找出失事原因呢?
我們的制度上出現太多瑕疵,如果不全面檢討現行制度,"加強飛安"將永遠只是一個口號.

The Push-Pull Effect 推拉效應

As I warned last month, there are problems in the training of Taiwan Air Force pilots. I feel so sorry when the aircraft accidents repeatedly happen in Taiwan. From the past to today, my sole motive has been the same which is to find out the possible causes so that the accidents can be prevented. That is why I insist in studying aviation in the United States. I take pilots' lives as my responsibility. As a matter of fact, very few Taiwanese aviation professionals who have sufficient knowledge and capacity can be the aircraft accident investigators. Professors at the Taiwan Air Force Academy are not aviation majored and never see these cadets' future needs in aviation. What a pity! Cadets learn so little about aviation. This has threatened their safety in flight. Unfortunately, little attention has been paid to this issue.

誠如我上個月提出的警訊,台灣空軍飛行訓練存在有許多問題有待解決.飛機不斷地失事令人相當難過.從以前至今我一直懷抱著一個理想--把真正失事的原因找出來避免類似的意外再次發生.這就是我為何遠赴美國進修航空科學.我視飛行員的性命為我的責任.但事實是台灣太少人有足夠的學識及經驗可以擔任飛機失事調查員.大多數官校的教師並非航空主修,未能瞭解未來飛行學生的需求.學生在航空方面所學真的太少,而影響飛行安全.不幸地,這樣的問題並未受到重視.

Today, an IDF combat aircraft crashed over the ocean of Ping-Hu islands. The military confirmed this accident this morning and have launched the investigation. I strongly recommend the military should take the push-pull effect into account of this serious risk on military pilots. Aviation physiologists and pilots did not know the effect of push-pull until the early 1990s. Today it is known by most of American military pilots, but Taiwanese pilots still almost know nothing about this. The push-pull effect is considered common during air combat manoeuvres (ACM) and ground attacks. It has already been considered as a possible cause in Canadian, US Navy and US Air Force aircraft accidents. Studies found that an even short exposure to a negative gravity-a positive gravity movement can significantly reduce human positive second tolerance in flight operations. The effect may contribute to Almost Loss of Consciousness (a-LOC) and G. Induced loss of consciousness (G-LOC).

今天一架IDF戰機於澎湖外海失事,空軍證實後隨即展開調查工作.本人強烈建議空軍應該將"推拉效應"這極度危害飛行員生命的因素視為可能造成失事的原因之一.這種現象一直到1990年代才被航空醫生及飛行員發現,而現在大多數的歐美國軍事飛行員已經警覺這種效應,但台灣飛行員卻對它毫無所悉."推拉效應"尤其在空戰及對地攻擊時最常發生.加拿大空軍及美國空軍及海軍已經視"推拉效應"為一個可能的因素.研究發現縱然只是短暫的負G又正G的操作,將大量減低飛行員對G力可承受之能力,而造成幾乎失去意識及G力導致失去意識.對戰鬥機飛行員可以說是相當的危險,就我個人之見它儼然是個"頭號殺手"試問我們在澎湖外海的對地攻擊靶場摔掉了多少架飛機了?

It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward.

"The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place. I do't care how tough you are, it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard you hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. It's how winning is done. If you know what you're worth, get what you're worth. But you gotta be willing to take the hits and not pointing fingers saying you ain't where you wanna be because of him or her or anybody." Rocky Balboa

Giddens' Double Hermeneutics and Patton's Triangulation

As a matter of fact, I assume to talk about the problems of flight training in Taiwan. Last month, two chopper pilots were killed in an accident. Their families immediately lost precious sons, beloved husband, and dear daddy. Few days later, a combat fighter IDF landed on a wrong airport. All evidence showed the pressing need to improve Taiwanese military flight training. Comparing with US aviation, we poorly define in terms of VFR and IFR. The military pilots seldom realize the danger of clouds and fly through without awareness. They should fly under IFR if the visibility is poor. The complacent military pilots have made mistakes and lost their lives. Overall, Taiwan air force should refer to US aviation training to clearly define VFR and IFR. There are too many courses in a half year basic flight training to include patterns, aerobatic flight, formation flight, solo flights, cross country, night flight, basic instrument flight, advanced instrument flight, etc. The military pilots will always confuse VFR and IFR.
其實本來這個月我想談的是台灣飛行訓練的問題,因為上個月陸軍戰鬥直昇機失事意外,使得兩名優秀的飛行員喪失了寶貴的生命,也使他們兩個家庭從此失去了寶貝的孩子,摯愛的丈夫,或親愛的爸爸.而前幾天一架IDF戰機原本應該降落岡山機場卻誤降左營直昇機機場,顯示基礎飛行訓練出了問題需要加以改進.如果比較美國飛行訓練,我們的軍事飛行訓練對目視飛行或儀器飛行的界定太鬆散,常常模稜兩可,甚至於對於穿雲這樣危險的動作居然不以為意.天氣不好能見度差,就應該立即實施儀器飛行,但是我們軍事飛行員的膽識卻用錯了地方,而無端地失去了寶貴的生命.總而言之,基礎飛行訓練應效法美國對目視飛行或儀器飛行採取兩個階段的訓練,當所有目視飛行(約半年)完成後再進行半年的儀器飛行訓練.台灣卻將兩種訓練混合一起半年即結訓 (飛行科目有航線飛行,航線單飛,性能飛行,特技飛行,空域單飛,編隊飛行,編隊單飛,長途飛行,夜航,基本儀器,高級儀器等),結果是訓練不夠扎實,飛行員飛了一輩子老是分不清楚該採目視飛行或儀器飛行,危險一直如影隨行,只是不知道何時將發生.

In addition, my concern is on the extreme attitude of media in Taiwan. The detrimental beliefs of media will harm more people than the aircraft accident. We should consider the role of media in dealing with the information and data. Each individual has his or her own beliefs, so it is almost impossible to be neutral and objective. Therefore, Dr. Giddens claims "Double Hermeneutics" which is to understand what people do, how people understand their world and how that understanding shapes their practice. We should look at the issue from two different angles, rather than one side of extreme viewpoints. Dr. Michael Patton's "Triangulation" reminds us to have more data sources and perspectives when tackling problems. Using extreme people will be very harmful to Taiwan.
而讓我最近更擔心的是台灣新聞媒體的激進報導,這對人們的傷害比航空失事更危害千萬倍.難到台灣學者都沒有發現這嚴重性,還是跟本不知道如何解決.如果不規範媒體處理新聞的角色,那激進的立場將越來越明顯.由於每個人都有自己的信念,要客觀中立幾乎不可能,因此Anthony Giddens教授的Double Hermeneutics雙重釋義理論對台灣社會就相當重要.當我們要解釋一個社會現象時,必須從兩個不同視角來看問題,而不能像傳統社會學那樣走某一極端.深綠或深藍媒體電台都無法真正解讀真正領會社會現象.而Michael Patton教授的Triangulation三角剖析也提醒我們資料來源要多方面,立場要多方面,交叉檢視問題.用極端的看法或人物對台灣的傷害都會很大.

站在巨人的肩膀上 Standing on the shoulders of giants!!!

My supervisors

Prof. D. Robertson
Prof. M. Priestley

牛頓在1676年寫道：「如果說我看的比別人更遠，那是因為我站在巨人的肩膀上。」隱喻藉由理解偉大科學家的研究, 我們才得以發展未來智識的追求.
Isaac Newton famously remarked in a letter to his rival Robert Hooke dated February 5, 1676 that "If I have seen farther than others, it is because I was standing on the shoulders of giants." That means "One who develops future intellectual pursuits by understanding the research and works created by notable thinkers of the past."

而我正站在巨人的肩膀上, 使我學識更豐富研究能力更強.
Now I am standing on the shoulders of giants, so I have richer knowledge and better research capacity to be able to dominate the dynamics of aviation and education.

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這是對台灣參加奧運比賽的表現有感而發,希望台灣也有"巨人"教練讓選手們可以更快更好.只有聘用世界級優秀的教練, 台灣的選手才能在國際比賽發光發熱, 充滿新希望.

What I feel about Taiwanese athletes in Olympic games is that we need "Giant" coaches to train our archers, weightlifters, swimmers, tennis players, baseball players, kickboxing players, athletes, etc. better and faster. Only having the best coaches from the world can Taiwanese athletes win the international competition.

鐵忠治水

美國佛羅里達理工學院Professor W. R. Graves主要教授Aviation Planning, Airport Design, INM (Integrated Noise Model)等,和其他老師不同的是他上課不用課本,而是自己準備講義,而且最重要的部分他只會在課堂上講解.這些課都非常實務,比如說機場治水工程(Storm Water Run Off)這個章節使我瞭解如何計算颱風豪大雨降雨量,不同地形洪水流速,及所需排水設計等.

Professor W. R. Graves taught aviation planning, airport design, INM, etc. at the Florida Institute of Technology (F.I.T.). Unlike most of teachers, he seldom used textbooks but his own teaching materials and always lectured the important issues in the classroom. For instance, I learned "Storm Water Run Off" to understand storm rainfall rates, run off coefficient and time of flow, and pipe needed for drainage design.

今天因颱風帶來前所未見的降雨量,全台淹水的情況相當嚴重,無庸至疑這是天災;但是如果我們早先規劃時已經考慮洪水的問題並依詳實計畫執行,也許今天就不會這樣悽慘了.這裡我提供部分講義及基本的計算概念,希望可以喚起大家的注意,及尊重專業. Today we have an unexpected storm rainfall and have a serious flooding around Taiwan islandwide. Surely, this is a natural disaster, but if we have planed in advance with the control of local flooding, then the damage could be avoided. Here I provide materials and handouts relevant to Water Run Off. I am hoping to draw your attention to aviation specialists.

台灣水利署說花完預算颱風照淹,但是我們可以清楚看到美國規定不論是System Planning, Master Planning, Design and Construction, 或Operational都必須防範Local Flooding and Sedimentation;問題在於台灣人才夠不夠多及有沒有決心去做好,一個區域一個區域規劃整治,Ponding及drainage system以近五年內所經歷最大的降雨量為主(a maximum rainfall expected once in 5 years is generally recommended for estimation),凡是努力過必留痕跡,將可行目標設定好,一個一個按部就班來完成. 除了水利署的看法,我們也應該廣邀歐美學者及專家的看法或是一同參與規劃與整治. "知難行易"至少 國父孫中山先生也是這麼鼓勵大家應該有的做事態度.

專業至上

In the United States, the core courses of the Department of Aviation consist of aviation planning, airport design, airport management, aircraft maintenance management, flight management, aviation laws, etc. However, I found the courses of aviation in Taiwan are far different from the courses in American aviation departments. Perhaps it is because the majors of Taiwanese teaching staff in the Aviation Department are computer science. What I concern is if Taiwanese aviation teachers are isolated themselves from the world, they never be able to see the developmental trends of international aviation.
在美國,航空管理系主要修業課程通常包含機場規劃,機場設計,機場管理,飛行管理,飛機修護管理,航空法等.我發現台灣這裡卻以資訊管理取代;名義上是航空管理系但是實質上所開的課與英美等大學航空管理學系所開設的課相差十萬八千里. 我相當擔心如果台灣從來不曾與英美航空管理的學者交流,永遠坐井觀天,不知道外面的山有多高,外面的海有多深,那不僅是個人的可悲也是台灣悲哀.沒有專業的師資很難相信台灣航空管理能夠進步多少?現在頂著"航空管理教授"的光環而卻是主修電腦的人如何帶領臺灣航空的未來?

2008台灣國內航空公司的危機與轉機

目前台灣學者對危機管理的定義多以類似緊急應變或失事預防為主.但是今日航空公司的危機處理不再是以失事預防而是財務危機處理為首要.油價飆升,通貨膨脹,及次級房貸風暴使得全球經濟緊縮,不少航空公司面臨倒閉的危機.(美國航管課程所提到"危機處理"因此多以財務為例.)譬如說遠東航空公司之所以倒閉有部分原因是執行長決策錯誤,另一部分應是公司組織鬆散所致.也可惜遠東航空公司被交給一位非航管專業的人經營,終於導致失敗.此時政府應該諮詢航管專家的意見再決定是否或如何營救遠東航空.美國是資本主義者所以航空公司經營全由市場機制決定(合併或裁員司空見慣),但台灣文化畢竟與美國不同,政府如果伸出一些援助就可能救幾百個或幾千個家庭(這些人並不是沒知識或沒有工作能力,而是有能力卻意外失去工作機會),那為什麼不救呢?
Risk management is defined operationally in research. Most of Taiwanese scholars tend to define risk management as emergency responses or accident prevention. That is fine. However, aircraft accident is not a pressing issue in risk management for most airlines corp today. Financial issues are what they concern about and become an important one in risk management. The increasing pressure on oil price, economic inflation, and mortgage has made the airline corp. facing the bankruptcy. In addition to issues mentioned, the Far East Airlines had a serious organization problem for effect management. The company hired a wrong CEO who led to the bankruptcy and should be responsible for the failure of management. The Airline Deregulation Act is the way that U. S. government treats their companies. However, I disagree that Taiwanese government gives up the Far East Airlines which basically will make profit soon if only they change their operations. It will save hundreds or thousands of families. The authorities should be involved and consulted with aviation specialists. (written June 22, 2008)

2008 Taiwanese Airlines Risk Management is the topic in April. The Far East Airlines as being bankruptcy touches my heart to write this articles for it and other domestic airlines. Nevertheless, I am quite busy on my study. Please wait ...

Last month, I discussed Taiwanese airport management and have drawn the attention of authorities to this issue. Hopefully, the master plans of Taoyuan International Airport and aviation industry will be conducted successfully.

這是我這個月要發表的文章,是針對遠東航空公司的慘澹經營有感而發,也許也適用其他台灣國內航空公司.但最近比較忙還沒時間寫,請期待.

上個月對台灣機場做了一些建言以後,很高興越來越多人注意這個問題,希望桃園航空城可以成功.

Taiwan Economy Development Supported by Airports 機場幫台灣拼經濟

The cross-strait charter flights between Taiwan and China will be launched soon, but are airports in Taiwan ready?
From the perspectives of aviation specialist, I observe and assume that Taiwanese airports still remain the operations of traditional airport management which focuses on enplanement and deplanement services. These airports are largely dependent upon the budgets of the government needed billions dollars to maintain airport operations. The costs in the airport at least are including personnel salary, education and training, equipment and facility maintenance, ramps and terminals construction, and taxiways and runways pavements. However, the modern airport management is based on the principle of non-profit organization. To survive, the airports must make fortunes as much as possible themselves. A typical example is L.A.X., which contributes $61 billion to the economy each year or $167 million each day.
Approximately 408,000 jobs are directly or indirectly due to the airport, including more than 59,000 jobs at 254 firms at the airport itself. The annual budget for LAX is more than $475.2 million. Please refer to the official website http://www.laxairport.com/ And other example near Taiwan is Hongkong international airport with approximate 51billion HK$ IN 2006/2007. Please see http://www.hongkongairport.com/eng/aboutus/report/06_07/e08_financial_and_oh.pdf
Since Taiwanese airport will take advantages of cross-strait flights, I want to ask our authorities again "Are Taiwanese airports ready?"

兩岸直航即將開啟,但台灣各個機場真的準備好了嗎?
就專業而言,台灣機場的功能還僅是維持在傳統的思維:只負責輸送旅客及貨物的服務. 這樣的管理模式必須要花費龐大的政府預算,例如人事費,教育訓練費,機器設備費,廠棚及航站增建或改建,跑道及滑行道整修諸如等等,每年都要花掉國庫好幾億,才能使一個國際機場正常運作.但是,現在國外的機場管理模式雖然不是以營利為主,卻強調自給自足;也就是說機場要學會賺錢以減少政府的支出.從來自美國L.A.機場官方網站http://www.laxairport.com/資料顯示這個國際機場一年幫政府賺六百億美元,平均一天賺一億六千七百萬美元.直接或間接提供四十萬零八千個工作機會給國人. 而該機場一年的支出預算僅約四億七千五百萬美元,無形中成為幫國家拼經濟的大功臣.臨近的香港國際機場一年收入約七十七億港幣, 支援年度機械設施維修及更新後,淨獲利約二十億港幣(資料來源香港國際機場官方網站(http://www.hongkongairport.com/eng/aboutus/report/06_07/e08_financial_and_oh.pdf)
台灣即將擁有香港的優勢,再請問一次我們真的準備好了嗎?
我的結論是只負責輸送旅客及貨物的服務是絕對不夠的.

Heathrow Airport Terminal Building Development

We need professional airport managers to make Taiwan airports that we are proud of.

我們需要專業機場管理者, 使台灣國際機場也能向其他先進國家一樣成為國民驕傲的地方.